Metals, Miners & Macro: RBE's Weekly Market Report + Portfolio Update & Stock Picks
Outperformance Strategies - Precious Metals, PGMs, Miners, Energy Metals, Agriculture
Commodity Investors: All Systems Go
The last few weeks in the market have been eye-opening. It appears the moment we've been waiting for has finally arrived—the pricking of the tech bubble combined with the US Dollar losing its dominance among global currencies. This creates the perfect storm for commodity investors: capital has few other places to go for protection. Valuations are near historic lows, and the charts are firming up—it’s time to make hay.
Our goal is to identify which segments of the commodity markets are showing the highest degree of relative strength. Momentum out of early-cycle bottoms is our game.
This report will outline actionable, near-term setups and developing themes to watch for key turning signals. No fluff, no opinions—just chart-driven, objective insights.
We start every week with some key macro charts to gauge broad commodity sector dynamics. This week, we’re looking at:
DXY – U.S. Dollar Index (Breakdown)
DBC – Commodity Index (Bullish Falling Wedge Setup)
JX – TSX Venture Index (Explosive Base Breakout Setup)
DXY – U.S. Dollar Index
Last week, the US Dollar Index signaled a major shift — a character change is underway. Despite the S&P 500 falling sharply, the Dollar, usually viewed as a Safe Haven, couldn’t catch a bid. Price bounced off major support this week and is likely to stabilize around these levels. But the big takeaway? A broad era of Dollar weakness has begun, providing significant tailwinds for commodities. This is a major win for commodity investors.
DBC - Commodity Index
Price is teasing the breakout level of a giant “Bullish Falling Wedge” pattern. Once it cracks the declining 200 SMA and the wedge structure, an impulsive, broad-based rally will ignite across the commodity market. That’s when capital floods in—and it’s our job to find the strongest players. The breakout’s close.
JX - TSX Venture Index
Our favorite macro chart. Price has been grinding sideways in a bullish basing/reversal structure since bottoming in July 2022. Now, it’s printed hammer reversals off the 200 SMA two weeks in a row and totally shrugged off the S&P weakness—a blatant signal of strength. Smart investors should pay attention to this setup: junior resource companies are primed to explode. When the Venture Index outperforms, life-changing money is made. Skeptics can scoff, but check the 2016 and 2020 rallies—tons of stocks, even junk ones, went 10x within a span of a few months. We think we’re entering another such period.
Silver
It’s time for silver to take the baton from gold and start running. The RSI structure has broken out, and price is riding all moving averages higher. Key resistances are marked in the chart, the first one being at $35.55, where it is logical to expect some cooling off. We expect it to be relatively brief before continuing higher to the next major level around $42.
Gold
Price broke our key resistance level at $2,963, which, after initially testing many weeks ago, underwent a small correction (less than we expected, which is a good sign). We noted a few weeks ago when Gold was at the resistance level there was a potential Bearish Divergence developing in the RSI. This could very quickly be worked off as price has now convincingly broke out of our key range this week. Bull markets can maintain overbought readings for a prolonged period of time and these divergences can be worked off. The trends are still pushing higher and bullish signals are firing in the Miners - which look ready to break out of a 4 year resistance level:
GDX - Gold Miners