Metals, Miners & Macro: RBE's Weekly Market Report + Portfolio Update & Top Stock on Watch
Outperformance Strategies - Gold, Silver, Miners, Bitcoin, Platinum, Palladium, Copper, Lithium, Uranium, Potash, Fertilizers, Energy
Everyone loves to pontificate about markets — flaunting credentials, spinning intellectual word salads about macro conditions, and pretending today’s headlines can perfectly predict tomorrow’s prices.
I’ve seen plenty of PhDs and economics grads fail to generate real returns because they trusted stories over signals.
Here’s the reality: narrative-based strategies fail more often than they work. Sure, headlines can move markets in the short term — but it’s the big trends and price structures that tell the real story. Markets are forward-looking. What’s already “known” is already priced in — and no one can quantify how much of the prevailing opinion is baked into the tape.
The only signal that consistently matters: Price action — the raw, real-time expression of every participant’s view, position, and conviction. It’s the truth beneath the noise.
So let’s skip the headlines and go straight to the charts. If you want to know where the market’s headed, price is the only story worth reading.
Macro Charts: Setting the Stage
Each week, we kick off with key macro charts to gauge broad commodity sector dynamics:
SPY - S&P 500 ETF
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil
DXY - US Dollar Index
JX – TSX Venture Index
SPY - S&P 500 ETF
Price is stalling at our breakout level, with early-week strength fading into the close — printing a near-term toppy looking candle that suggests the market may see further pressure into next week. Bigger picture: stocks have completed a bullish crossover (50 EMA over the 150/200). As long as price holds above the Quarterly Pivot — where a number of key support levels converge — the broader trend still has bullish tailwinds behind it.
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil
Here’s another example where price action often leads the narrative. We’ve been tracking the inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily for weeks now, and price blasted higher, completing the full measured move this week on the war headlines. This is encouraging for energy and commodities overall — however, zooming out shows price is still within the downtrend established in 2023 and rejected off the yearly pivot. The 200 SMA remains negatively sloped, suggesting prevailing major trend pressure until it flattens and turns higher. For now, oil has work to do to confirm a major cycle bottom, but an overall positive development occurred this week.
DXY - US Dollar Index
Last week’s hammer candle failed to produce follow-through and saw price plunge this week into its critical 14-year uptrend support around $97.50. This level is crucial to watch — if broken, selling in the dollar would likely accelerate with a rush into hard assets. Given the oversold RSI and pervasive bearish sentiment on the USD, I don’t expect this level to crack without a fight (bounce). We’ll continue watching the declining 50 EMA, which has acted as strong resistance on this downward leg.
JX – TSX Venture Index
After moving firmly upward off the April lows, the Venture is taking a breather at our Major Resistance Zone — a confluence of pivots and the 70 RSI level. Juniors saw selling pressure this week, but as I like to remind, these are small hiccups within a broad and powerful underlying bull market. Given the price structure — a multi-year base breakout near historical lows — the Venture and commodities in general will have a multi-year tailwind. Dips are for buying in this environment.
Bitcoin
After hammering off its 50 EMA last week, price tested the breakout level again but couldn’t follow through. The market is clearly at an inflection point, with Bitcoin acting as a strong risk-on/off proxy - a breakout to all time highs will signal risk appetite is alive and well. A breakdown of the uptrend would be an ominous signal for stocks - tech in particular. Watch the 2022 uptrend and 50 EMA as critical supports, and the horizontal resistance band as breakout confirmation.
Gold
Gold has been consolidating its move for well over a month and closed the week with a breakout of the range. I’ve noted before that this consolidation is bullish — the correction is in time, not price, giving up very little percentage drawdown. Momentum indicators cooled off, and key trends, particularly the 50 EMA, caught up to price. The 50 EMA has driven the trend since the February 2024 breakout — continue to watch it for a reliable signal on the sustainability of the move higher.
Silver
Last week silver showed it can still move hard despite many writing it off, claiming “something is wrong with silver and it never does anything.” The real move begins when our Resistance Zone and key momentum structure (RSI) break to the upside. When silver gets overbought, the big moves tend to happen. Until now, we’ve only seen orderly buying — no panic or FOMO. Price closed this week with a spinning top candle signaling indecision. After the big move last week, a cooling off and sideways churn is logical to let short-term trends catch up. Be patient — the “real” move is still setting up.