Metals, Miners & Macro: RBE's Weekly Market Report + Portfolio Update + Top Stock on Watch
Outperformance Strategies - Gold, Silver, Miners, Bitcoin, Platinum, Palladium, Copper, Lithium, Uranium, Potash, Fertilizers, Energy
A short week—however anything but quiet.
Commodities are ripping off key supports or close to confirming major breakouts. The main driver: A U.S. dollar that’s been in freefall.
Despite what some say—“commodities can rally with a strong dollar”—you don’t get a Super Cycle without a falling US Dollar. History proves it: the 1970s, early 2000s—the big commodity booms followed dollar weakness.
Let’s get straight into the charts—where I’ll lay out exactly where we stand, where the real opportunities are, and where downside risk is rising.
Macro Charts: Setting the Stage
Each week, we kick off with key macro charts to gauge broad commodity sector dynamics:
SPY - S&P 500 ETF
DBC - Commodity Index
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil
DXY - US Dollar Index
JX – TSX Venture Index
SPY - S&P 500 ETF
Price is following through on its Key Resistance breakout from last week, closing near highs. All moving averages are supportive and pushing higher, which will likely take the ETF towards ~$640 where it will need to consolidate. We are in a RISK ON environment—trends and momentum are bullish.
DBC - Commodity Index
Price bounced exactly at our Key Support Confluence level outlined last week, closing over the Yearly Pivot and into the upper limit of our Wedge structure. The Momentum Structure is also flirting with a breakout. The major moving averages are close to forcing a breakout, which would create broad-based buying pressure across most commodity segments.
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil
Oil also bounced off our Major Support Zone this week, testing the declining 150 EMA, but closed below it. For now, energy remains within a broad downtrend, which until broken and reversed, requires patience and a generally defensive stance. That said, positive signals are emerging in the space—it should be watched closely from here.
DXY - US Dollar Index
After slicing through the 14-year uptrend support last week, price closed with a hammer candle (reversal) just under this critical level. I mentioned we should expect a “war” around this inflection point—and we’re likely to get it. The RSI is deeply oversold, and given the weekly hammer, it’s logical to expect a counter-trend bounce. The 50 EMA is quickly descending from above and is the key average to watch to continue pushing price lower. Once the $97 level cracks with conviction, we get the “Super Cycle” signal for commodities— and the real party begins.
JX – TSX Venture Index
After a brief couple of weeks of correction, the index thrust higher through the Major Resistance, riding the 20 EMA—a signal of powerful near-term strength and momentum. Note the volume bars on the right side of the chart—the Index is in a thin volume zone, suggesting little overhead resistance. Price should continue trending firmly higher in the weeks ahead. Another signal that risk appetite in junior miners is healthy and ramping up.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is getting ready to make a major move. Price is sitting just under all-time highs and has a confluence of moving averages pushing up from just below. Bitcoin has typically led the tech sector (QQQ)—either breaking out or down before the Nasdaq. Lately it’s been lagging, however, which could be an ominous signal for tech which is nearing a big resistance zone, alongside the S&P. Having said this, the short and long-term trends are still positively sloping which makes a breakout the most likely scenario until proven otherwise (key trend breakdowns).
Gold (Daily)
We’ve been watching the 50 EMA very closely—it’s been a key support throughout most of the gold bull market this far. Price ripped off this level on Monday and closed the week just under the short-term 10/20 EMAs. Broadly, price continues to chop in a sideways pattern as it seeks a resolution from the range. So long as the 50 EMA, Key Momentum Level & $3262 level (Quarterly Pivot) hold, the bulls are in full control.