Metals, Miners & Macro: RBE's Weekly Market Report + Portfolio Update & Stock Picks

Outperformance Strategies - Precious Metals, PGMs, Copper, Miners, Lithium, Uranium, Agriculture

Another wild week is in the books, capped by a rollercoaster Friday referred to as 'Quadruple Witching.' It’s a wild day—occurring four times a year—when a cauldron of financial derivatives (stock index futures, index options, stock options, you name it) all expire at once, stirring up a volatility brew.

We don’t get spooked by the short-term chaos, though. Our eyes stay locked on the big trends. Zooming out to the weekly charts after a 5-day trading sprint keeps us dialed into the market’s real heartbeat.

This report will outline actionable, near-term setups and developing themes to watch for key turning signals. No fluff, no opinions—just chart-driven, objective insights.

We start every week with some key macro charts to gauge broad commodity sector dynamics. This week, we’re looking at:

• SPY - S&P 500 ETF - Critical Support

• DBC / SPY Ratio - Double Bottom

• DXY – U.S. Dollar Index - Dead-Cat Bounce

• WTI Crude Oil - Critical Support

• JX – TSX Venture Index - Breakout Watch

SPY - S&P 500 ETF

Why track the S&P 500? It’s the broadest gauge of market strength—a barometer of mega-cap blue-chip stocks across diverse sectors. Lately, the ETF’s price action has been weak—heavy selling, broken trends, and moving averages hinting at a downturn. A bear market in the S&P could pressure most assets, but we’re not calling it yet; betting against stocks is tough. Despite potential weakness ahead in the S&P - this ratio is why we’re still bullish commodities:

DBC / SPY Ratio (Monthly)

This ratio is a useful gauge for understanding the relative strength or weakness of commodities versus stocks. This double bottom on the monthly implies that commodities will significantly outperform the S&P for a multi-year period ahead. Many fundamental reasons are pushing this ratio higher: inflationary pressures, a weakening equity market and growing demand for raw materials tied to supply constraints (tariff/geopolitical wars). So despite the potential top that’s setting up in SPY - we believe that commodity investors can benefit greatly from capital rotation.

DXY - U.S. Dollar Index

The breakdown in the index two weeks ago was a strong signal—the U.S. Dollar is losing its dominance among global currencies. But this doesn’t mean it’s going down in a straight line. We mentioned over the last few reports that price is rapidly approaching a major support level and that price was likely to bounce at the pivots. This is playing out now—which will pressure the commodity space in the short-term. We expect a dead-cat bounce into the declining moving averages above and then a resumption of the broader downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil

The commodity complex cannot go berserk, generally speaking, without strength in crude oil—which is the backbone of the economy and various production inputs. Price is flirting with its 6-year critical price support zone at $65. Price has successfully held the level and is attempting a reversal back into the confluence of declining moving averages just above. Price is also nearing the apex of a multi-year tightening structure—what does this mean? Oil is about to produce an explosive move, which will have serious implications for the commodity space as a whole.

TSX Venture Index

The S&P drives the broader market’s pulse, but the TSX Venture is the lifeblood of the junior resource space—our domain and focus. That’s why we lean hard on its signals. Price action here looks exceptionally strong—trading above all major moving averages with a multi-year basing structure on heavy relative volume. It closed the week just shy of the breakout confirmation level - shrugging off a lot of the weakness in the S&P 500 again - another positive sign. So, despite mixed signals in the wider market (S&P and oil), the Venture’s strength stands out, and we’re keeping our foot on the gas.

Gold

Last week, gold broke out of the major resistance range we’ve been watching. Now, price has tested and has stalled at the next Minor Resistance level just above. All moving averages remain supportive—however, one warning signal continues to present itself. The RSI (momentum) is potentially fading as price makes new highs—which would suggest the rally is losing steam and is due for a correction. It’s too early to make this call, as the RSI hasn’t confirmed a turn lower—however, we’re watching intently to see what plays out in the week ahead. For now, we ride our precious metals positions.

Silver

Like gold, silver remains above all key moving averages and closed the week right on its 10-day EMA. Early in the week, price attempted a momentum breakout but faded into the close of the week as the expected dollar bounce played out. Most commodities couldn’t shake off the headwinds that a firming dollar applied this week. Long-term trends are upward-sloping and are rising from just below—so, like gold, we remain patient and ride the trends higher.

*I want to take a moment to go into two key ratio charts that will outline why RBE thinks this precious metals rally still offers exceptional upside - particularly in the Silver Miners*

SIL/GDX Ratio (Monthly)

First, the question—silver miners or gold miners? This chart gives you the answer. Silver miners are historically undervalued vs. gold miners and have an explosive base setup on the monthly. Even just a reversion to the mean of the historical ratio would imply that the upside in silver miners will dwarf that of the gold miners going forward.

SIL/Silver Ratio (Monthly)

Silver Miners are breaking out of a 9 year support level with momentum confirmation. This chart should not be brushed aside as trivial. The ratio has been basing for numerous months on end - building extreme and explosive energy to the upside. The ratio indicates a multi-month runway of drastic outperformance in the miners vs the metals is beginning. The focus in the precious metals sector should be on silver miners going forward.

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SIL - Silver Miners